Every spring, the same thing happens. Headlines declare the housing market either red-hot or finally cooling, buyers and sellers read those headlines and form an opinion, and then they call me with that opinion already cemented. Sometimes the headlines are right. Often they're not, at least not for the slice of Chittenden County the person in front of me actually cares about.
So instead of giving you another recap of national trends or a glossy "spring market is booming" post, I want to tell you what I'd tell you over coffee. Here's what's actually happening in Chittenden County right now, what the numbers say, and what I'm seeing on the ground in my own listings and showings.
The Headline Numbers
Let's start with what the data says, because the data is genuinely interesting this year.
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Median single-family sale price is up from $569,000 in April 2025 to $599,823 in April 2026, about a 5.4% year-over-year increase. Steady, not dramatic.
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Days on market is tight across every price band: 24 days under $450K, 23 days from $450K to $750K, and 28 days for $750K and above.
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37% of homes sold over asking price in the past 60 days.
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Active inventory is up modestly: 154 homes this April versus 146 a year ago.
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Closed sales are up roughly 14%: 81 this April versus 71 last April.
Read those numbers together and a coherent story emerges. Both supply and demand are higher than last spring, but demand is outpacing supply, which is why prices are still climbing. More than a third of homes are going over asking, but the majority, 63%, are not. Homes that are priced right and presented well are moving in three to four weeks across every price band. The market isn't on fire and it isn't cooling. It's working.
The honest one-line version: there's a lot of pent-up demand eating up listings, and people are still buying homes despite real affordability challenges.
That's the through-line for everything below.
How That Pressure Plays Out in Different Parts of the Market
The county-wide numbers tell you the overall weather, but they don't tell you what to wear. Here's how the same overall pressure shows up differently depending on what you're buying or selling.
Starter Homes Under $500K
This is the most competitive segment in the county and it isn't close. In Essex, homes under $500K have consistently been drawing multiple offers and selling above list price all spring. The Old North End of Burlington under $600K is in the same place. If a home is genuinely move-in ready, it's getting multiple offers.
A recent example: I listed 90 West Street in Essex Junction at what I felt was a fair, defensible price. Six offers. Then 15 Abnaki Avenue in Essex drew 17 offers, which I'll be straight with you, was partly because it was priced below where the market was. There's a real lesson in the contrast: fair pricing and aggressive pricing both work in this segment, they just produce different kinds of results. Fair pricing gets you a strong field of qualified buyers. Aggressive underpricing creates a frenzy, but it gives a pool of buyers unrealistic hope.
If you're buying in this segment, you need to be ready to move quickly, with clean financing and a thoughtful offer strategy. Hoping for a quiet listing you can take your time on is not a 2026 plan.
The $500K to $750K Muddle
This is where the market gets less predictable. There's still real demand here, and well-priced, well-presented homes are moving inside the 23-day median. But buyers in this band are stretched. Many are using every dollar they have, and they're paying close attention to condition, layout, and inspection items in a way they couldn't afford to a few years ago.
Sellers in this segment who price aspirationally, meaning where they wish the market was rather than where it actually is, are sitting. Sellers who price to the comps and present their home well are still seeing strong activity. Negotiation has come back into this segment in a way it hadn't been for a couple of years. Buyers are asking for repairs again. Closing cost concessions are on the table. None of that means the market is weak. It means it's normal.
Above $750K, and Especially Above $1 Million
The data shows $750K+ at 28 median days on market, only slightly slower than the lower bands. But my experience above $1 million tells a different story than the median suggests: those homes are taking noticeably longer. The buyer pool is smaller, more discerning, and less willing to stretch. Move-in-ready and turnkey commands a premium; anything that needs work sits.
If you're selling above $1M this spring, the playbook is patience, presentation, and pricing that respects the actual buyer pool, not where you bought five years ago plus an aspirational margin.
Condos and Townhomes
The most surprising segment to a lot of people. Condos are taking longer to sell than the single-family numbers above suggest. HOA fees, association dynamics, and the rate environment have made this segment trickier. Many buyers who could afford a starter condo can almost afford a small single-family home, and the math often pushes them that direction.
That said, well-priced condos in walkable Burlington and Winooski locations are still finding their buyer. The timeline is just longer than it was two years ago, and pricing strategy matters more than ever.
Outlying Towns: Hinesburg, Richmond, Jericho, Underhill
The same dynamic I wrote about a few weeks back in Looking Beyond Chittenden County shows up inside Chittenden County's edges, too. Buyers priced out of the core towns are reaching outward, and inventory in these areas is tighter than people expect. Homes in good condition with reasonable commutes to Burlington are not sitting.
The Two Surprises I'm Sitting With
Most of what I see lines up with the data. But two listings have surprised me this spring, and I think they're worth mentioning because they push back on the "everything is selling" narrative.
There's a home on a Burlington street I know well, a street where I'd normally bet a well-priced listing sells in two weeks. It's been on the market over a month at what reads to me like a strong price for the neighborhood. I'd have expected this one to move quickly. It hasn't.
There's another home on the same street that recently expired without selling. Also a price that, on paper, looked like a good deal for the area.
I don't have a clean explanation for either one. Sometimes a single photo, a single staging choice, or a single quirk in the floor plan is enough to slow a home down even in a strong market. Sometimes timing is just unlucky. The honest answer is that even in a market with this much pent-up demand, price alone isn't enough. Presentation, marketing, and the small details all still matter. A lot.
What This Means For You
If you're a seller, the takeaway is encouraging but specific: there are real buyers, real activity, and real upward pressure on prices. But the days of "list it and they will come" aren't quite back the way they were in 2021. Condition, pricing, and presentation are doing the heavy lifting. Get those right and you'll likely be one of the 37% selling over asking. Get them wrong and you'll be one of the listings I'm puzzling over a month from now.
If you're a buyer, the takeaway is harder but worth hearing: waiting for the market to cool is not a strategy that's working. Prices are still climbing, inventory is still tight relative to demand, and the segment you're shopping in matters enormously. A buyer under $500K needs a different strategy than a buyer at $850K. Working with someone who can tell you which game you're actually playing is the difference between making a good decision and a frustrating one.
If you're somewhere in between, thinking about a move and not sure if it's the right time, the most honest answer I can give is that the right time depends almost entirely on which segment you're moving from and which one you're moving into. The math works for some moves right now and not for others. That's a 15-minute conversation, not a blog post.
The Bottom Line
Chittenden County's spring 2026 market isn't a single story. It's a healthy, active market with real pent-up demand, steady appreciation, and meaningful competition in some segments, alongside real friction in others. The data backs that up, and so does what I'm seeing every week.
If you want to know what your specific situation looks like, your home's likely list price, the realistic timeline, what buyers in your segment are actually doing, that's exactly the kind of conversation I'm here for. Get in touch and we'll talk it through honestly.
